10年关联性趋弱 马股与经济面脱节
KLCI AND Macro-Market
Disconnect
大马国内生产总值（GDP）与股市之间的关联性在过去10年间越来越弱，分析员指出，宏观经济 与股市已脱节，主要是因为上市公司营业额及赚幅越来越竞争、外资投资购兴严重消退、马币持续贬值等原因。
The past decade has seen an increasingly weak correlation
between GDP growth and equity market performance. Interconnected reasons for
the disconnect include increasingly competitive revenue and margin dynamics
typical of a sclerotic middle-income trap country, fading foreign portfolio
investor interest being exacerbated by eroding benchmark weightings, and
shifting of growth impetus to export-oriented companies/FDI which have thrived
on subsidized inputs, a steadily depreciating currency and detachment from
local politics.
*GDP规模10年稳健扩张80％, 马股市值仅增长20％*
马银行投行区域兼大马股市研究主管阿南德(Anand
Pathmakanthan) 在报告指出，纵观过去10年国家经济及股市的统计数据不难发现这个窘境，即我国实际国内生产总值规模，从2012年的1兆令吉增至2022年的1.8兆令吉，稳健扩张80％，但期间马股整体市值（估值）仅增长20％。“马股去年的市值为1.8兆令吉，反观2012年时为1.5兆令吉，而期间在马股挂牌的公司还是停滞在约950家。”
Malaysia’s nominal GDP expanded from around RM 1T in 2012,
to c.RM 1.8T in 2022, an 80% increase, Bursa Malaysia’s total capitalization
(valuation) over the same period grew just 20%, to c.RM1.8T (2012: c.RM1.5T) while
total number of listed companies has been stagnant around the 950 mark.
他披露，富时综合指数充斥着“旧经济”的中坚分子与单调乏味的领域（银行、公用事业、电讯及种植），所以整体表现尤其有气无力，目前在1400点水平游走。
“这个水平也比10年前的综指下跌了20％，而股市交易流动性也同样蹒跚。”
The benchmark KLCI, laden with “old economy” stalwarts /
tedium (banks, utilities, telcos, plantations), has been especially feeble, now
hovering around the 1,400 level, which is almost 20% below where it was a
decade ago, with market trading liquidity similarly hobbled.
*4大理由*
阿南德点出，宏观经济与股市脱钩的理由，包括：一、上市公司营业额及赚幅日益竞争，这是普遍陷入中等收入陷阱国家面对的僵局；二、外资投资兴趣严重衰退，减持在综指的比重；三、增长动力转向出口导向企业及外来直接投资，即通过享有补贴茁壮成长；四、在不受到本地政局影响下马币持续贬值。
”不幸的是，以上原因还没来到一个拐点。”
他说，宏观经济与股市的脱节仍在继续，我国两周前公布今年首季经济增长，交出比预期好的表现按年增长5.6％，惟马股并未受带动，在首季经济数据出炉当天还跌2.26点；市场普遍预期我国首季经济增长4.8％，而去年第四季增长7.1％。
And so it continues. Malaysia’s 1Q23 real GDP growth was a
better-than-expected +5.6% YoY consensus: +4.8%; 4Q 2022: +7.1%), The FBM KLCI did
not benefit from the momentum and slipped 2.26 points despite a stronger GDP
growth was announced
*首季企业财报无法鼓舞人心*
“我们调高今年国内生产总值预期，从先前的4％上修至4.5％，但今年首季已出炉的企业财报至今却无法鼓舞人心，即使还有银行（净利息赚幅拖累）及种植领域（原棕油价格下跌）还未公布财报。”
while we have raised 2023E GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from
4.0% previously), 1Q23 corporate results has been broadly uninspiring thus far,
even with banks (NIM drag) and plantations (CPO price decline) yet to report.
阿南德续解释，重量级油气蓝筹股戴乐集团（DIALOG,7277,主板能源组）受更高项目（原料及通货膨胀）及营运（人力）成本拖累，而从前获投资者喜爱的消费股成功食品（BJFOOD,5196,主板消费产品服务组）也遭下修至“卖出”投资评级。就连国内物流领航业者SWIFT物流（SWIFT,5303,主板交通物流组）也受到宏观经济逆风侵袭表现萎靡。
Oil & gas bluechip Dialog underwhelmed on higher project
(materials, inflation) and operational (manpower) costs, while erstwhile
consumer favourite BFood has been downgraded to SELL as undershooting operating
margins due to higher raw material and labour costs are expected to continue
into end-2023. Domestic logistics bellwether Swift Haulage missed as container
haulage and freight forwarding segment volume handled/pricing are being
negatively impacted by macroeconomic headwinds.
“我们也下修测字业（NFO）至‘落后大市’评级，将多多博彩（SPTOTO,1562,主板消费产品服务组）及万能（MAGNUM,3859,主板消费产品服务组）调降至‘卖出’，不止是因测字销售仅在疫情前的70至80％，加上即将开跑的6州州选也潜存政策及投注站关闭风险。”
We also downgrade the Numbers Forecast Operator (NFO) sector
to Underperform, with both Sports Toto and Magnum cut to SELL; not only are NFO
sales plateauing at just 70%-80% of pre-COVID levels but upcoming state
elections pose policy/outlet closure risk.
Sources : Sinchew Business
And Maybank Investment Research
