Saturday, 4 March 2023

2月28日 - 3月1日 水灾前后,还是后知后觉!

 

大马气象局在225日发布的橙黄色警报!

 



 

在这次228 - 31日的南马水灾, 气象局并有没失职。早在上周六,该局早就已经发出黄色警报,警惕国人关于发出持续降雨的黄色警报。最讽刺的,还有网友问“怎么我的地方没有下大雨?”, 这就是一般国人典型只看看标题,没有看内容的一群!

 

气象局不是透过电视告知所有数据,而是透过大马气象局官方网站告知。唯有特定时段的气候更新,或出现紧急警报时才会透过电视播出。

 

气象局能预测1天至3天后的降雨量,地震与海啸方面,也能在测出不寻常地震波后的8分钟内就顺利发出地震消息。

 

媒体没有吸取前几次先知先觉的教训,没有大肆报道,至少在气象局在上周六发出警报后就提醒各界,特别是国会议员,州议员,居民们,已提早做出准备

 

有朋友问我,要是气象局预报不准,那怎么办? 这关系到人命及财物,如果是害怕被责怪或被问责,那就不要在水灾发生后,说三道四,!国人的公民意识,危机意识,常识,对周围的警觉性都很差,希望教育部能改善这些问题,从学校着手,好好教导我们的下一代!

 

因此如果再发出有关气象局太迟发警报的说辞,导致国人来不及戒备的说法,是不正确的!


P/S: 以下都是不错的·天气预报、大马水灾网站,特别是 windy:

1.  https://www.windy.com/ 

2.  https://www.met.gov.my/ 

3. https://zoom.earth/ 

4. https://www.rain-alarm.com/

5. https://publicinfobanjir.water.gov.my/?lang=en 


 

Wednesday, 1 February 2023

兔年扭转乾坤3焦点




Link: https://www.enanyang.my/%E5%9C%A8%E5%95%86%E8%A8%80%E5%95%86/%E5%85%94%E5%B9%B4%E6%89%AD%E8%BD%AC%E4%B9%BE%E5%9D%A43%E7%84%A6%E7%82%B9%E5%8F%B6%E6%AC%A3%E5%90%91?fbclid=IwAR2E 3w_zu2PGH5m5h5_DE3akX8ST4VbZpKB2O774oUSS4Q9DC-NEDib1hw 

Friday, 11 November 2022

MSCI Equity Indexes November 2022 Index Review - MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes: Malaysia

 

全球证券指数发布商明晟(MSCI)最新公布季度(NOV 2022)权重调整,  MSCI大马小资本股指数(MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes)

 

新增(ADDITION):

1. AFFIN

2. FARM FRESH

3. LITRAK  

4. PMBTECH

5. SAM  

 

剔除(DELETION):

1. DPHARMA  

2. MAHSING

3. MI

4. SUNWAY

5. SUNCON

6. YTLREIT

 

 

Wednesday, 2 November 2022

市场为什么大涨?Why is the stock market/stock prices surged?

 

市场为什么大涨?

 [霍华德•马克斯新近交流的这段话很有解释力]

 

这段话来自于10月下旬,霍华德与英国财富机构St. James's Place一场线上对话交流,话题围绕风险、市场心理和应对策略。

 霍华德説:

 “最大的好消息,就是市场的情绪都是负面。

 如果市场反映了太多的悲观情绪,就没有什麽继续失望的馀地了。反而,出现好消息的时候,就成了额外的惊喜。

 每个人都知道,未来前景比较暗淡(通胀等等),我也同意这一观点。

 但是,也有可能,现实并不会如我们预期的一样糟糕。心理预期上的改变反馈,就在市场上会形成积极的作用。”

 注意,这里谈的是海外市场,大家关注的点会有很大不同,但其中涉及到的市场心理的角度,却很有普遍性。

 单独看这段话也不够的,霍华德的回答总是会围绕他成熟的投资哲学,杰出投资人除了擅长从企业的长期成长中获胜,也很擅长利用心理的潮汐去做逆向投资。

 我们把最重要的几句摘出来:

 1、当悲观情绪过度、人们认为前景无望时,重要的是要变得积极进取。因此,我们确实在进攻性和防御性之间调整了我们的立场,逆向投资非常重要。

 2、上週有人问我。我的第一本书叫做《投资中最重要的事》,那对投资者来説,最不重要的是什麽?我想了一分钟,我以前没考虑过这个问题。

 我回答是,最不重要的是短期。

 每个人都被未来6个月的通货膨胀所困扰……接下来6个月发生的事情,很可能并不会影响后面20年、30年的结果。

 3、如果每个人都知道在未来24个月内可能会出现衰退,那麽这种预期可能已经反映在股价中。所以你现在卖也不会有什麽好处。我认为我们正处于(钟摆)的中间阶段。

  

这场交流中,霍华德还讲到了很多关于风险控制,今年上半年他宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的演讲中对此讲的非常透彻。

 

那场演讲中的一些经典语句值得一读再读。

 

1、只有在困难时期,我们才能发现哪些投资有风险,哪些没有风险。

2、我一直认为世界上最有风险的事情是人们觉得没有风险,因为当人们认为没有风险时,他们就会冒险去做很多事,从而使这个世界成为一个充满风险的地方。

3、最近我还喜欢的一句话是,世界上所有的墨守成规都不会改变一个事实:你所有的知识都是关于过去的,你所有的决定都是关于未来的。我们对未来一无所知,我们只有猜测。

4、决定你的投资是否有风险的,不是你买了什麽,而是你用什麽价格买的。好的投资不是“买好的”,而是“买得好”。区别不仅是语法上的。如果你不明白其中的区别,那你就入错行了。

5、想想看,如果你有一辆车,并且你的车有保险,一年过去无事发生,你会觉得在保险上浪费了钱吗?如果你有头脑,你就必须一直有保险,但也希望你永远不需要用上它。在我看来,风险控制也是如此。

6、卓越投资组合的基石就是风险控制,这是一项伟大而隐祕的成就。

7、投资最大的挑战是控制不确定性,同时仍然保持巨大的上升潜力。

 

Sources:https://news.futunn.com/hk/post/20957368?src=3&report_type=market&report_id=219281&futusource=news_headline_list&level=2&data_ticket=1666674391632286

Tuesday, 5 July 2022

Petronas Integrated Report 2021. : Letter from the Chairman


Excerpts of the letter were extracted from the Petronas Integrated Report 2021.


Dear stakeholders,

Two years have passed since the pandemic began, and our world continues to be challenged by volatility and uncertainty on an unprecedented scale in living memory. Even as countries and industries alike strive to recover from the brutal impact of Covid-19, they now face new-found challenges in the wake of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict whose consequences may well long outlast the hostilities themselves and which are likely to reshape the industry landscape in fundamental and complex ways.

Notwithstanding the prevailing uncertainties, the role that Petronas plays as an energy company in the context of the wider society remains clear — namely, that it continues to serve as an effective engine that drives economic recovery for Malaysia and beyond by ensuring the safe, secure and reliable supply of energy, while taking vital steps that pave the way to gradually transition to a lower-carbon future in a just and equitable way.

In our efforts to fulfil this role, Petronas remains unwavering in the delivery of its amanah (trust), always striving to dutifully discharge its obligations and responsibilities despite the overwhelming odds and challenges. With prudent financial management and an unyielding commitment to upholding safety performance as well as delivery of commercial and operational excellence, Petronas registered a strong performance in 2021 after two years of extreme disruptions to the energy ecosystem. This achievement by the group is credited to the courage, dedication and tenacity of our people. In this opportunity, I  would also like to thank our stakeholders for their support and assistance that allowed us to continue operating safely and optimally throughout the lockdown periods.

Looking ahead, changes in the energy landscape will provide new challenges and growth opportunities that we must approach with a credo and mindset for progress and innovation. To this end, I am confident that with the right steer and support from the board, Petronas is well positioned to progress with pace and resilience to deliver profitable and sustainable growth aligned to our three-pronged growth strategy and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 (NZCE 2050) aspiration.

Reflecting on 2021

Petronas’ performance for the year in review demonstrates its relentless focus on operational and commercial excellence across the group.

The organisation ensured the reliability of its operations to leverage the recovery in global energy demand seen in 2021 with the safety of our people and assets as its highest priority.

Although some degree of stabilisation was seen with the roll-out of vaccinations and economies recovering from easing of lockdowns and gradual removal of border restrictions, delivering the group’s performance did not come easily. During the year, the oil and gas industry continued to be very volatile and uncertain in the face of sudden shocks to the market, many of which were beyond our control. These included:

  1. The threat of new and highly infectious Covid-19 variants derailing economic recovery which proved to be of grave concern for the safety of our people and its impact on our supply chain.
  2. The oil and gas industry remaining fragile as the rebound in oil prices was driven by the multi-speed reopening of economies, steadfast active market management by OPEC+ and an unfolding global energy supply crisis.
  3. The increasing pace of the energy transition causing sustainability-driven structural changes to our industry with stakeholders demanding more visible, impactful results in our efforts to decarbonise.

Nevertheless, Petronas successfully demonstrated its ability to respond and become part of the solution. Together, the Petronas board and leadership team were able to not only preserve and enhance its core oil and gas portfolio but also grow in the new energy space for long-term business sustainability and resiliency.

As a result, Petronas was able to generate healthy financial returns and contribute to its stakeholders in the form of cash payments, tax, export duties, state sales tax and dividends. In 2021, we paid the scheduled RM25 billion dividend payments to the government of Malaysia. 

Moving forward with purpose

The year 2021 has proven that we need to constantly be prepared to pivot when faced with the unexpected. The unprecedented challenges of the past year offered Petronas an opportunity to reform strategies, expedite transformation and prioritise sustainability risks. It was imperative that Petronas emerged from this trying period more resilient, more agile, technologically stronger and financially more robust.

The achievements of 2021 demonstrate the dedication and strength of our people coupled with a robust integrated portfolio that provided Petronas with the strong foundation it needed to capitalise on price recovery. I am deeply grateful to the women and men who stood by Petronas amid the turbulence and offer my sincere thanks to each and every one of them.

As we progress to capitalise on this period, Petronas will continue in its efforts to safely deliver commercial and operational excellence. We remain focused on maintaining fiscal discipline and careful operational spending as well as preserving liquidity to ensure resiliency and high performance across the group. We are determined to seize new opportunities for sustainable, profitable growth as we uphold our commitment to our shareholder and lay the foundation for our future growth.

The Petronas of the future will still have hydrocarbons as a key part of its portfolio with products delivered safely, responsibly, cost optimised, and emissions abated. The new forays that we are making in step-outs today will complement our core portfolio to provide energy for a world that continues to progress and develop, while being in ever-greater need of solutions for emissions.

While the variety of our business offerings expands, the heart of the organisation, in its purpose and values are timeless and remain the same. Our purpose, cultural beliefs, and shared values of loyalty, integrity, professionalism and cohesiveness will continue to bind us together.

Looking ahead, the pressures on Petronas are only going to increase as we continue to bear the expectations and aspirations of Malaysia and the communities where we operate. We must make our move to navigate through the turbulence to find our position for the future. In our quest to create a sustainable legacy for the next generation, we must steer the business and shape an energy future that they deserve, one in which Petronas will continue to be their preferred energy and solutions partner.

Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh
Chairman


Read also:   https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petronas-ceo-wan-zulkiflee-multiple-strategies-needed-current-business-landscape    

Friday, 17 June 2022

Weaker ringgit to benefit exporters, inflation to affect share trades

 Bursa: Weaker ringgit to benefit exporters, inflation to affect share trades

 

1. How does the weaker ringgit against the US dollar affect Malaysian share trade dynamics?

The weaker ringgit against the US dollar will benefit exporters. Therefore, sectors that are export-oriented with high local content are likely to benefit with better earnings and price performances. Resource-based sectors such as plantation and energy would have similar impact as the weaker ringgit and higher commodity prices are likely to propel earnings higher for resource-based players. This can be seen from the Plantation index (YTD May 2022: +22%) and the Energy index (YTD May 2022: +19%), which have outperformed the other sectorial indexes. On the other hand, a much weaker ringgit or volatile movement of the local currency may create challenges for businesses, which could ultimately affect their bottom line. Foreign investors may also choose to stay on the sideline if they perceive that the ringgit may weaken further as this could hurt their capital.

 

2. What are the key factors (in Bursa's opinion) which will affect Malaysian share trade dynamics in the second half of 2022?

Some of the key factors which will affect Malaysian share trade dynamics in the 2H22 are:

 

Inflationary pressures

 

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and China's zero-Covid policy have caused global supply disruptions, resulting in the rise in commodity prices and inflation. Inflation erodes real disposable income, which may erode consumer confidence. That said, some of the sectors may stand out to be more resilient than others. For instance, consumer staples are likely to weather the storm as demand for them is relatively inelastic in nature. On the bright side, we are blessed with natural resources and commodities like petroleum products and palm oil, which could help cushion the inflationary impact. Resource-based players are likely to benefit from the commodity price rally.

 

Rising interest rates

 

Globally, central banks are in the mode of increasing interest rates to combat high inflationary pressure. As Malaysia transitions into the endemic phase, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has also taken measures to revise overnight policy rate (OPR) to the pre-pandemic level while considering the economic state of the country. Rising interest rates will result in higher borrowing costs for businesses, which may in turn dampen their expansion plans. This would then lead to slower earnings growth in the near term. On top of that, higher interest rates will also make it more expensive for consumers due to higher loan repayment, which in turn reduces the disposable income for consumers.

 

However, the central bank is still likely to set OPR at a level that is conducive for economic growth as it considers the rate and pace of the interest rate adjustment. One key beneficiary of interest rate hikes is the financial sector, as higher interest rates could lead to higher net interest margins.

 

The possibility of general election

 

A possible call for the 15th general election may create uncertainties in outlook for companies that rely heavily on government projects. The political uncertainties could also keep foreign investors at bay. However, businesses that generate high level of their revenue by exporting as well as sectors that are premised on consumption growth are likely to be more sheltered from any political changes.

 

Reopening theme to cushion the impact

 

BNM has projected 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.3%-6.3%, driven by the reopening theme and resumption of projects with multiplier effects and strong external demand from our major trading partners. Foreign direct investment (FDI) grew by RM23.3 billion to RM812.1 billion in the first quarter of 2022 from the preceding quarter, with the manufacturing sector receiving the highest value of FDI at RM347.1 billion. The tourism sector, which has been in the backseat for the past two years, is likely to recover with the reopening of international borders, thus benefitting the hospitality, transportation, recreational, and services sectors.

 

Corporate earnings

 

Corporate Malaysia's earnings are likely to improve year-on-year premised on the country's GDP growth and reopening. Malaysian listed companies currently have a very attractive price-to-earnings ratio (PER). To put things into context, our benchmark FBM KLCI was trading at a trailing PER of 15.1x as at end-May, the second lowest among our regional peers that ranged between 12.9x and 17.3x. Through this, the Malaysian equity market looks very appealing fundamentally.

 

Sources: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bursa-weaker-ringgit-benefit-exporters-inflation-affect-share-trades  

Tuesday, 17 May 2022

WATCH OUT FOR THE RED FLAGS

WATCH OUT FOR THE RED FLAGS: 


INVESTORS WITH LOW-RISK APPETITE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING:


CONTENTION BETWEEN MANAGEMENT AND BOARD 

PROPOSED CHANGES TO FINANCIAL PERIOD END

NAME CHANGES

FREQUENT CHANGES IN BUSINESS DIRECTION 

CHANGES OF AUDITORS 

AUDIT OPINION



Excerpt  from NST Newspaper dated 5/5/2022 , Page 20 , “WATCH OUT FOR THE RED FLAGS” By Mr  Devanesan Evanson