MSCI Equity Indexes November 2022 Index Review - MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes: Malaysia

 

全球证券指数发布商明晟(MSCI)最新公布季度(NOV 2022)权重调整,  MSCI大马小资本股指数(MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes)

 

新增(ADDITION):

1. AFFIN

2. FARM FRESH

3. LITRAK  

4. PMBTECH

5. SAM  

 

剔除(DELETION):

1. DPHARMA  

2. MAHSING

3. MI

4. SUNWAY

5. SUNCON

6. YTLREIT

 

 

市场为什么大涨？Why is the stock market/stock prices surged?

 

市场为什么大涨？

 [霍华德•马克斯新近交流的这段话很有解释力]

 

这段话来自于10月下旬，霍华德与英国财富机构St. James's Place一场线上对话交流，话题围绕风险、市场心理和应对策略。

 霍华德説：

 “最大的好消息，就是市场的情绪都是负面。

 如果市场反映了太多的悲观情绪，就没有什麽继续失望的馀地了。反而，出现好消息的时候，就成了额外的惊喜。

 每个人都知道，未来前景比较暗淡（通胀等等），我也同意这一观点。

 但是，也有可能，现实并不会如我们预期的一样糟糕。心理预期上的改变反馈，就在市场上会形成积极的作用。”

 注意，这里谈的是海外市场，大家关注的点会有很大不同，但其中涉及到的市场心理的角度，却很有普遍性。

 单独看这段话也不够的，霍华德的回答总是会围绕他成熟的投资哲学，杰出投资人除了擅长从企业的长期成长中获胜，也很擅长利用心理的潮汐去做逆向投资。

 我们把最重要的几句摘出来：

 1、当悲观情绪过度、人们认为前景无望时，重要的是要变得积极进取。因此，我们确实在进攻性和防御性之间调整了我们的立场，逆向投资非常重要。

 2、上週有人问我。我的第一本书叫做《投资中最重要的事》，那对投资者来説，最不重要的是什麽？我想了一分钟，我以前没考虑过这个问题。

 我回答是，最不重要的是短期。

 每个人都被未来6个月的通货膨胀所困扰……接下来6个月发生的事情，很可能并不会影响后面20年、30年的结果。

 3、如果每个人都知道在未来24个月内可能会出现衰退，那麽这种预期可能已经反映在股价中。所以你现在卖也不会有什麽好处。我认为我们正处于（钟摆）的中间阶段。

  

这场交流中，霍华德还讲到了很多关于风险控制，今年上半年他宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的演讲中对此讲的非常透彻。

 

那场演讲中的一些经典语句值得一读再读。

 

1、只有在困难时期，我们才能发现哪些投资有风险，哪些没有风险。

2、我一直认为世界上最有风险的事情是人们觉得没有风险，因为当人们认为没有风险时，他们就会冒险去做很多事，从而使这个世界成为一个充满风险的地方。

3、最近我还喜欢的一句话是，世界上所有的墨守成规都不会改变一个事实：你所有的知识都是关于过去的，你所有的决定都是关于未来的。我们对未来一无所知，我们只有猜测。

4、决定你的投资是否有风险的，不是你买了什麽，而是你用什麽价格买的。好的投资不是“买好的”，而是“买得好”。区别不仅是语法上的。如果你不明白其中的区别，那你就入错行了。

5、想想看，如果你有一辆车，并且你的车有保险，一年过去无事发生，你会觉得在保险上浪费了钱吗？如果你有头脑，你就必须一直有保险，但也希望你永远不需要用上它。在我看来，风险控制也是如此。

6、卓越投资组合的基石就是风险控制，这是一项伟大而隐祕的成就。

7、投资最大的挑战是控制不确定性，同时仍然保持巨大的上升潜力。

 

Sources:https://news.futunn.com/hk/post/20957368?src=3&report_type=market&report_id=219281&futusource=news_headline_list&level=2&data_ticket=1666674391632286

Petronas Integrated Report 2021. : Letter from the Chairman

Excerpts of the letter were extracted from the Petronas Integrated Report 2021.

Dear stakeholders,

Two years have passed since the pandemic began, and our world continues to be challenged by volatility and uncertainty on an unprecedented scale in living memory. Even as countries and industries alike strive to recover from the brutal impact of Covid-19, they now face new-found challenges in the wake of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict whose consequences may well long outlast the hostilities themselves and which are likely to reshape the industry landscape in fundamental and complex ways.

Notwithstanding the prevailing uncertainties, the role that Petronas plays as an energy company in the context of the wider society remains clear — namely, that it continues to serve as an effective engine that drives economic recovery for Malaysia and beyond by ensuring the safe, secure and reliable supply of energy, while taking vital steps that pave the way to gradually transition to a lower-carbon future in a just and equitable way.

In our efforts to fulfil this role, Petronas remains unwavering in the delivery of its amanah (trust), always striving to dutifully discharge its obligations and responsibilities despite the overwhelming odds and challenges. With prudent financial management and an unyielding commitment to upholding safety performance as well as delivery of commercial and operational excellence, Petronas registered a strong performance in 2021 after two years of extreme disruptions to the energy ecosystem. This achievement by the group is credited to the courage, dedication and tenacity of our people. In this opportunity, I  would also like to thank our stakeholders for their support and assistance that allowed us to continue operating safely and optimally throughout the lockdown periods.

Looking ahead, changes in the energy landscape will provide new challenges and growth opportunities that we must approach with a credo and mindset for progress and innovation. To this end, I am confident that with the right steer and support from the board, Petronas is well positioned to progress with pace and resilience to deliver profitable and sustainable growth aligned to our three-pronged growth strategy and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 (NZCE 2050) aspiration.

Reflecting on 2021

Petronas’ performance for the year in review demonstrates its relentless focus on operational and commercial excellence across the group.

The organisation ensured the reliability of its operations to leverage the recovery in global energy demand seen in 2021 with the safety of our people and assets as its highest priority.

Although some degree of stabilisation was seen with the roll-out of vaccinations and economies recovering from easing of lockdowns and gradual removal of border restrictions, delivering the group’s performance did not come easily. During the year, the oil and gas industry continued to be very volatile and uncertain in the face of sudden shocks to the market, many of which were beyond our control. These included:

1. The threat of new and highly infectious Covid-19 variants derailing economic recovery which proved to be of grave concern for the safety of our people and its impact on our supply chain.
2. The oil and gas industry remaining fragile as the rebound in oil prices was driven by the multi-speed reopening of economies, steadfast active market management by OPEC+ and an unfolding global energy supply crisis.
3. The increasing pace of the energy transition causing sustainability-driven structural changes to our industry with stakeholders demanding more visible, impactful results in our efforts to decarbonise.

Nevertheless, Petronas successfully demonstrated its ability to respond and become part of the solution. Together, the Petronas board and leadership team were able to not only preserve and enhance its core oil and gas portfolio but also grow in the new energy space for long-term business sustainability and resiliency.

As a result, Petronas was able to generate healthy financial returns and contribute to its stakeholders in the form of cash payments, tax, export duties, state sales tax and dividends. In 2021, we paid the scheduled RM25 billion dividend payments to the government of Malaysia. 

Moving forward with purpose

The year 2021 has proven that we need to constantly be prepared to pivot when faced with the unexpected. The unprecedented challenges of the past year offered Petronas an opportunity to reform strategies, expedite transformation and prioritise sustainability risks. It was imperative that Petronas emerged from this trying period more resilient, more agile, technologically stronger and financially more robust.

The achievements of 2021 demonstrate the dedication and strength of our people coupled with a robust integrated portfolio that provided Petronas with the strong foundation it needed to capitalise on price recovery. I am deeply grateful to the women and men who stood by Petronas amid the turbulence and offer my sincere thanks to each and every one of them.

As we progress to capitalise on this period, Petronas will continue in its efforts to safely deliver commercial and operational excellence. We remain focused on maintaining fiscal discipline and careful operational spending as well as preserving liquidity to ensure resiliency and high performance across the group. We are determined to seize new opportunities for sustainable, profitable growth as we uphold our commitment to our shareholder and lay the foundation for our future growth.

The Petronas of the future will still have hydrocarbons as a key part of its portfolio with products delivered safely, responsibly, cost optimised, and emissions abated. The new forays that we are making in step-outs today will complement our core portfolio to provide energy for a world that continues to progress and develop, while being in ever-greater need of solutions for emissions.

While the variety of our business offerings expands, the heart of the organisation, in its purpose and values are timeless and remain the same. Our purpose, cultural beliefs, and shared values of loyalty, integrity, professionalism and cohesiveness will continue to bind us together.

Looking ahead, the pressures on Petronas are only going to increase as we continue to bear the expectations and aspirations of Malaysia and the communities where we operate. We must make our move to navigate through the turbulence to find our position for the future. In our quest to create a sustainable legacy for the next generation, we must steer the business and shape an energy future that they deserve, one in which Petronas will continue to be their preferred energy and solutions partner.

Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh
Chairman


Read also:   https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petronas-ceo-wan-zulkiflee-multiple-strategies-needed-current-business-landscape    

Weaker ringgit to benefit exporters, inflation to affect share trades

 Bursa: Weaker ringgit to benefit exporters, inflation to affect share trades

 

1. How does the weaker ringgit against the US dollar affect Malaysian share trade dynamics?

The weaker ringgit against the US dollar will benefit exporters. Therefore, sectors that are export-oriented with high local content are likely to benefit with better earnings and price performances. Resource-based sectors such as plantation and energy would have similar impact as the weaker ringgit and higher commodity prices are likely to propel earnings higher for resource-based players. This can be seen from the Plantation index (YTD May 2022: +22%) and the Energy index (YTD May 2022: +19%), which have outperformed the other sectorial indexes. On the other hand, a much weaker ringgit or volatile movement of the local currency may create challenges for businesses, which could ultimately affect their bottom line. Foreign investors may also choose to stay on the sideline if they perceive that the ringgit may weaken further as this could hurt their capital.

 

2. What are the key factors (in Bursa's opinion) which will affect Malaysian share trade dynamics in the second half of 2022?

Some of the key factors which will affect Malaysian share trade dynamics in the 2H22 are:

 

• Inflationary pressures

 

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and China's zero-Covid policy have caused global supply disruptions, resulting in the rise in commodity prices and inflation. Inflation erodes real disposable income, which may erode consumer confidence. That said, some of the sectors may stand out to be more resilient than others. For instance, consumer staples are likely to weather the storm as demand for them is relatively inelastic in nature. On the bright side, we are blessed with natural resources and commodities like petroleum products and palm oil, which could help cushion the inflationary impact. Resource-based players are likely to benefit from the commodity price rally.

 

• Rising interest rates

 

Globally, central banks are in the mode of increasing interest rates to combat high inflationary pressure. As Malaysia transitions into the endemic phase, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has also taken measures to revise overnight policy rate (OPR) to the pre-pandemic level while considering the economic state of the country. Rising interest rates will result in higher borrowing costs for businesses, which may in turn dampen their expansion plans. This would then lead to slower earnings growth in the near term. On top of that, higher interest rates will also make it more expensive for consumers due to higher loan repayment, which in turn reduces the disposable income for consumers.

 

However, the central bank is still likely to set OPR at a level that is conducive for economic growth as it considers the rate and pace of the interest rate adjustment. One key beneficiary of interest rate hikes is the financial sector, as higher interest rates could lead to higher net interest margins.

 

• The possibility of general election

 

A possible call for the 15th general election may create uncertainties in outlook for companies that rely heavily on government projects. The political uncertainties could also keep foreign investors at bay. However, businesses that generate high level of their revenue by exporting as well as sectors that are premised on consumption growth are likely to be more sheltered from any political changes.

 

• Reopening theme to cushion the impact

 

BNM has projected 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.3%-6.3%, driven by the reopening theme and resumption of projects with multiplier effects and strong external demand from our major trading partners. Foreign direct investment (FDI) grew by RM23.3 billion to RM812.1 billion in the first quarter of 2022 from the preceding quarter, with the manufacturing sector receiving the highest value of FDI at RM347.1 billion. The tourism sector, which has been in the backseat for the past two years, is likely to recover with the reopening of international borders, thus benefitting the hospitality, transportation, recreational, and services sectors.

 

• Corporate earnings

 

Corporate Malaysia's earnings are likely to improve year-on-year premised on the country's GDP growth and reopening. Malaysian listed companies currently have a very attractive price-to-earnings ratio (PER). To put things into context, our benchmark FBM KLCI was trading at a trailing PER of 15.1x as at end-May, the second lowest among our regional peers that ranged between 12.9x and 17.3x. Through this, the Malaysian equity market looks very appealing fundamentally.

 

Sources: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bursa-weaker-ringgit-benefit-exporters-inflation-affect-share-trades  

WATCH OUT FOR THE RED FLAGS

WATCH OUT FOR THE RED FLAGS: 

INVESTORS WITH LOW-RISK APPETITE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING:

• CONTENTION BETWEEN MANAGEMENT AND BOARD 

• PROPOSED CHANGES TO FINANCIAL PERIOD END

• NAME CHANGES

• FREQUENT CHANGES IN BUSINESS DIRECTION 

• CHANGES OF AUDITORS 

• AUDIT OPINION

Excerpt  from NST Newspaper dated 5/5/2022 , Page 20 , “WATCH OUT FOR THE RED FLAGS” By Mr  Devanesan Evanson

中国国家主席习近平在博鳌亚洲论坛2022 - " 甘蔗同穴生，香茅成丛长 " Serumpun bagai serai, selubang bagai tebu

 中国国家主席习近平在博鳌亚洲论坛2022年年会开幕主旨演讲中，呼吁各国奉行睦邻友好政策，在谈及积极推动亚洲合作上，一连引用了2个来自马来文与印尼文的谚语来形容共赢合作是亚洲发展的必由之路。这2个马来文与印尼文谚语，分别是“遇山一起爬，遇沟一起跨 ”及“甘蔗同穴生，香茅成丛长 ”（Serumpun bagai serai, selubang bagai tebu）。

 

其中, “遇山一起爬，遇沟一起跨 ”（Bukit Sama Didaki, Lurah Sama Dituruni）更是中国驻马大使馆常用的成语，而在2020年的新冠疫情爆发期间，为我国各机构捐赠抗疫物资时，更贴上有这马来谚语的大气字条，借此表示马中两国同舟共济、携手抗疫。

 

甘蔗同穴生，香茅成丛长

“Serumpun bagai serai, selubang bagai tebu”

 "sugarcane and lemongrass grow in dense clumps".

比喻:同心同德, 生死与共.

Lim Wee Chai Topglove Famous Quotes Collection 丹斯里林伟才成功的经典名言

 Tycoon Lim Wee Chai famous quotes collection:

 

1.要做好，身体要健康，思想要健康，要灵活，每天要照顾好身体

2.除了健康，脑袋内的知识与智慧尤其重要。要多看书，多看新闻，多跟人交流，多向优秀且对的人学习。要建立人脉，不要有傲气，才能增加自己的价值。

3. 每个人都需要不断地增值以确保个人、公司、国家和社会的成功

4. 如果每天进步1%，在一年里内就能进步38倍，若每天进步2%，一年后就会有1,380倍的改变；相反的，如果每天稍微退步1%，一年之后便会失去97%，仅剩3%。

5. 仅把今天做好并不足以保证明天的优秀，每天都需要进步与创新，对自己有要求，才能精益求精、更上一层楼。

6. 老板要先把自己管理好，才能够管理好公司和员工

7. 不逃避问题，人家大问题做不到的，你做到，你 能解决的才有价值（如果很容易做的，都不需要我们去做）

8.不怕生意多，最怕没生意；不怕工作多，最怕没工作

9. 做生意，一定会面对挑战。我们必须做好应对的准备。尤其当我们现在是业界翘楚，比其他同业面对更多挑战。要永远排第一位是不可能的，要成为第一并保持领先更加困难。

10. 若个人好但社会不好，便不能长远。

11.一个伟大的公司应具备的品质：毅力，纪律，诚实，正直，透明， 不断进步， 健康的员工

12. 你现在刚投资数千万，引进了新的技术，不到一会儿的光景，竞争对手那厢又带进更新的技术了，纯粹从科艺技术层面来比较，这根本就没完没了；若要在同行中超越对手，就得要比其他竞争对手革新于更高层次及推广软实力———企业文化

13. 诚、正、信、实这四大信条，是企业永续经营的关键点。所以，也把之融入在公司的企业文化当中。

在这日新月异的时代，工艺技术一日千里，制造业更是首当其冲，不时面临巨大的挑战，竞争可说是异常的激烈。再加入“三需”，即需知、需做及需教；尤其是身为领导人，更是要以身作则，懂得自爱和自律，凡事要身先士卒，并且亲力亲为，及具备全力以赴的工作态度。

14. 在好景时，展现我们的能力是轻而易举的事，但只有在充满挑战的市道下才能展现强大的韧性

15. 5 Wells： Clean Well, Eat Well, Work Well, Exercise Well and Sleep Well清洁好、吃好、工作好、运动好及睡好

16. Many good things to do and never do bad

17.  It is easy to do well during good times but in tough times, companies that continue to do well are those with a solid foundation.

18. In good times, we must prepare for bad times. The way we live may have changed, but we still have to continue working, even harder, smarter and faster now during these uncertain times.

19. Our record high results are a testament to our strong foundation which is decades in the making. It comprises a committed and capable team, as well as ongoing improvement initiatives in terms of automation, digitalisation, quality and cost efficiency

20. We must also maintain good mental and physical health so we are able to sustain our upward growth trend and overcome any challenges, now and in the future

上海封城措施空前 外国专家怎么看？ Chinese government's lockdown policy in Shanghai

 

上海封城措施空前 外国专家怎么看？

中国新冠本土疫情持续扩散，而上海作为疫情最严重地区之一，已进入全面封城状态。官方坚持的所谓“动态清零”政策，不仅严重冲击经济，更令民众生活陷入困境。对于上海的空前封城举措，外国防疫专家们怎么看呢？

 

根据上海市卫健委4月4日通报，上海在前一天，新增425例新冠肺炎本土确诊病例和8581例本土无症状感染者。目前总共约有七万例感染者，超过九成为无症状感染者。但官方依然坚持“动态清零”政策，3日全市进行抗原检测（快筛），4日全市核酸检测。而在此之前，上海以黄浦江为界，已对浦东和浦西分别进行封控管理。

 

对于上海为遏制疫情采取的严厉手段，美国防疫专家是如何评价的呢？

 

清零政策不可持续 只是延长痛苦

“我从一开始，就认为中国的政策是错的。”美国约翰霍普金斯大学传染病专家阿麦施-阿德嘉（Dr. Amesh Adalja）告诉本台记者，“他们采取的措施是不可持续的，这对于永远不可能被彻底消灭的病毒而言，是完全不可持续的。他们只是在把这种痛苦延长了。”

约翰霍普金斯大学拥有美国排名顶尖的医学院，阿德嘉医生也是该校公共健康学院健康安全中心的高级研究员。他认为，此刻中国政府应该做的是，采取目标性的应对措施而不是彻底封城；应该采取精确的“测试、跟踪、隔离”方式；同时需要对高危人群增加施打疫苗，以保护医院系统顺利运作。他批评中国政府，“这些他们都没做，而是不断地重复其错误做法。除非他们能抛弃清零政策，否则他们就无法摆脱疫情。”

 

林力图也来自约翰霍普金斯大学公共健康学院，是健康政策与管理系专家，同时也是马里兰州州参议员。他强调，在防疫和维持城市运作上，政府要有一个正确的平衡。因为全面封城是非常难以实现的，而且很可能并无法达到想要的目标，强制隔离也未必能达到理想效果。

 

“病人能够复原的最好地点，通常是在家隔离，如果可以的话。同时要注意，封锁整个城市或社区造成的干扰非常大，要做的就是取得正确的平衡。”他说。

 

 

 

坚持“动态清零”与“病毒不可能根除”

 

据新华社报道，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理孙春兰4月2日到达上海，并与专家座谈，考察方舱医院等地。她强调，要坚持所谓“动态清零”总方针不动摇，以快制快，遏制疫情蔓延。

 

与此同时，上海官方的严厉封城措施也已引发民众的强烈不满。上海知名记者、曾任《上海经济报》（即后来的《第一财经日报》）和《上海商报》副总编的陈季冰在网上撰文，直指上海的所谓“全域静态管理”是在封城下实施的“计划经济”模式，是防疫过程出现混乱的症结点。

 

对于中国的强制“清零模式”，传染病专家阿德嘉认为，应对新冠病毒首先必须认识到它无法根除，唯一办法就是减弱其传染的严重性，不要让医院系统崩溃，并提高民众免疫力：“美国和很多其他西方国家，透过施打疫苗和接触病毒而产生的高度免疫力，就足以让新冠病毒无法对医院构成过大负荷。”

 

他认为，中国情况完全不同，官方一方面追求“清零模式”，但同时疫苗接种率却很低，尤其是在高危人群中，如老年人。而且，他们使用的疫苗也远不及欧美等西方国家的有效。

 

与此同时，奥密克戎变种病毒目前已对上海庞大的老年人口构成严重威胁。上海至少已有两家大型老年护理机构在院内爆发疫情。据《华尔街日报》披露，上海最大的东海老年护理医院至少有一百名病人检测结果呈阳性，还有许多病人已经死亡。

 

健康政策专家林力图也为中国的状况感到担忧,尤其是中国国产疫苗对抗新冠变种病毒有效率很低：“当中国的疫苗，如科兴疫苗不太有效，同时社区被大面积封锁，人们无法因接触过病毒而产生自然免疫力时，这是很危险的组合，让很多人的健康处于危险之中。”

 

对于疫苗问题，美国史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵曾公开表示，中国坚持使用国产疫苗而不愿从外国进口效果更好的mRNA疫苗，是因为这涉及到背后的巨大利益集团,因此很难改变。

 

“方舱医院”与“自愿隔离”

 

4月2日晚，位于浦东新区的上海最大方舱医院交付验收，床位超过一万五千张。4月3日，上万名外地医护人员也相继抵达上海，部分就入驻在方舱医院。不过，近日来网络流传很多视频显示，仓储建成的方舱医院不具备隔离条件且缺医少药，管理混乱，甚至食物供应都成难题。

与中国相比，林力图说，在美国也有很多为新冠病毒而建立的临时隔离设施，但人们完全是自愿前往，而非政府强制，条件也不可同日而语。

传染病专家阿德嘉还指出，中国在应对感染者方面非常激进，即使是患者病状很温和，都要隔离到方舱医院或者住院治疗，而不能在家隔离。他认为，中国采取的标准很可能和其它国家不同。

谈到未来中国应该如何改变政策，阿德嘉说,“中国应该鼓励施打疫苗、采取抗病毒药、如单克隆抗体药物、居家检测，所有这些措施。”

source: https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/huanjing/kw-04042022104300.html 

KLCI Projection and Bursa Top Pick

 

 MY STOCK PICK:

1.              ASTRO

2.              UNITED PLANTATION

3.              YTLPOWR

4.              FARM FRESH

5.              INARI

6.              GREATEC

7.              AX-REIT

8.              IGBCR-REIT

9.              CHINAETF-MYR

10.          CHINA100-MYR

MRT3 Line Circle Line